Round of 64 Best Bets
The market sets lines around brand, narrative, and recency. The model sets lines around efficiency, strength of schedule, and trend. When those two things diverge, there is value to be found. Here are the five best bets in the Round of 64, plus two additional plays worth tracking.
(6) Louisville −5.5 vs. (11) South Florida
The hype around South Florida is real. They rank 43rd in the OddsGods rankings and have been trending up rapidly toward the end of the season. Louisville started the year as a projected top-10 team but has failed to live up to expectations, barely holding onto a spot in the top 20. South Florida has significant momentum — gaining 40 spots in our rankings since the beginning of the year.
But the market is too bearish on Louisville. They are still a strong analytical team and people are overlooking this simply because they have not had the season they were projected to have. They are still balanced enough — 16th in raw net rating — to beat a South Florida team coming out of a weak American conference. Yes, the ACC is down this year, but South Florida will find it hard against a power conference team with their SOS outside the top 100. Their non-conference SOS was ranked in the mid-80s, and they simply do not have enough exposure to power conference competition to compete here. South Florida is still a good team. Louisville is slightly undervalued at −5.5.
(12) High Point +9.5 vs. (5) Wisconsin
Wisconsin is absolutely legit and has been playing extremely well down the stretch, but +9.5 is disrespectful to a High Point team that ranks 9th in raw net rating. There has been too much of an overcorrection to Wisconsin playing well over a 10-day stretch. It is not as though they are a team like Florida that has been consistently rising in the rankings for two months straight. This line is not giving High Point enough credit. They have the offensive firepower and balance to keep it close with Wisconsin. I am not picking High Point to win this game, but they can certainly keep it to a single-digit margin.
(10) Santa Clara ML vs. (7) Kentucky
This is classic market behavior for a high-profile game. The bigger brand is overvalued against a mid-major that is sneakily good. The current moneyline implies Santa Clara has roughly a 40% chance to win. We give them nearly 47%.
People are too commonly attracted to the name and default to the bigger program in betting markets. Santa Clara is marginally behind Kentucky across the multiple key rating systems that drive our predictions and trails Kentucky by only five spots in our overall rankings. The best argument for a Santa Clara victory is their trend. They have been remarkably consistent in climbing the rankings for two-plus months, while Kentucky has finished more or less where they started. I will take the team that has been trending better over the long term.
(9) Utah State ML vs. (8) Villanova
More power conference bias. Utah State has been the best mid-major team behind Gonzaga this season, and Villanova has been remarkably mediocre. Utah State is actually marginally behind Villanova in SOS — Villanova at 72, Utah State at 80 — but the Big East can barely be called a power conference this season. This line is showing Villanova too much respect.
(13) Cal Baptist +14.5 vs. (4) Kansas
Kansas is too volatile for this to be a 14.5-point spread. I also consider Cal Baptist slightly underrated — they rank 81st in the OddsGods rankings and surged in the second half of the season to claim the WAC bid. Cal Baptist sits right next to Dayton and Creighton in our rankings. If this matchup were Kansas vs. Dayton or Kansas vs. Creighton, would the spread be 14.5? There is just too much variance around Kansas to feel comfortable taking them to cover that number.
Other Good Bets
(13) Hawaii +15.5 vs. (4) Arkansas
Another overcorrection for a good conference tournament run. In our rankings, Arkansas has barely budged on net over the last month. People need to stop hammering teams that have played well for three or four games. 15.5 is way too large of a spread.
(6) UNC ML vs. (11) VCU
North Carolina has a low ceiling in this tournament, but this line is slightly overreacting to the Wilson injury. People forget that UNC has been relatively competent without him, and they should have enough for a VCU team with a SOS outside the top 100 that did not play a particularly difficult non-conference schedule. The talent disparity still favors UNC more than the moneyline suggests.